Vital Signs
Facts & Figures - On the ball
Predicting a pandemic
"It's clear that an influenza pandemic is overdue," declared Kathryn Kirkland, M.D., chair of DHMC's SARS/Influenza/Contagious Respiratory Infection Committee, in July 2005.
Past
20%
Worldwide infection rate from the 1918 "Spanish flu"
20 million to 40 million
Worldwide deaths from the 1918 flu
675,000
U.S. deaths from the 1918 flu (47% of all deaths that year)
September 1918
Boston Red Sox win the World Series
Present
108 / 54
Confirmed cases and deaths worldwide from avian flu, 1997-2005
36,000
U.S. deaths annually from seasonal flu
2 million to 7.4 million
Estimated deaths worldwide if avian flu becomes a pandemic
October 2004
Boston Red Sox win the World Series
Avian flu, Kirkland went on, is "a good candidate to cause a pandemic at this point. It's immunologically a new virus . . and it is highly virulent to humans. . . . Perhaps most worrisome of all, the Red Sox appear to be on a winning streak."
SOURCES: U.S. CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION AND A DHMC GRAND ROUNDS LECTURE BY KIRKLAND ON JULY 22, 2005
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